The cost of Russian coal in Turkey has reached its highest level since February

In Turkey, demand for Russian thermal coal is growing, which supports the quotations. Cement producers are actively purchasing the fuel, and some energy companies are trying to replenish stocks before the start of the high season. Turkey is the largest market for Russian coal miners in the western direction, convenient, among other things, in terms of logistics. But exporters in the west are forced to sell coal at a discount due to the risks of sanctions.

Russian thermal coal with a calorific value of 6,000 kcal per 1 kg for delivery to Turkey in the week of September 30 – October 5 rose in price by 3.3%, to $94.5 per ton including freight (CFR), NEFT Research calculated. This is the maximum figure since February and the largest dynamics of quotations in western and eastern directions in a week. Also, prices in Turkey for the first time since the beginning of the year exceeded quotations on the premium European market (CIF ARA), which were at the level of $92.2, according to analysts' data.

According to a NEFT Research review, cement plants in Turkey continue to purchase Russian coal as alternative prices are higher. “The market also shows increased activity from some buyers looking for cargoes with delivery in December-January. This may be due to the projected increase in electricity exports to Syria, as well as the desire to fix supplies in advance against the backdrop of a possible seasonal increase in demand,” the analysts note.

However, says NEFT Research consulting partner Alexander Kotov, even high-calorie Russian coal is often sold at a discount in Western markets, its size can reach 20%. And in general, prices there are lower than in some Eastern markets, other things being equal. The difference in prices on an FOB basis between Eastern and Southern or Western ports is about $10–20 per ton, adds Yevgeny Grachev, director of the Center for Price Indexes (CCI). According to him, in general, prices in the West for Russian coal have been in a sideways movement for several months and seasonal demand will be evident only closer to the end of the year.

According to Turkish statistics, which are cited by the Institute of Energy and Finance, in January-August Turkey increased coal imports from the Russian Federation by 34% year-on-year, to 21.3 million tons. In June-August, imports of Russian coal, including shipments through traders, increased by 28% year-on-year, to 8.3 million tons. In September, experts continue, railway shipments of D-grade coal from Kuzbass to Taman with subsequent shipment to Turkey increased 3.3 times month-on-month, to 300 thousand tons. On the other hand, exports from Murmansk decreased, the Institute of Energy and Finance noted, without disclosing figures.

According to Alexander Kotov, Turkey may well maintain or even increase its demand for imported coal, especially if gas prices and regulatory barriers increase, and the development of renewable energy sources is slow. "The country is facing growing domestic demand for electricity, while its own generation simply does not have time to cover it. And coal is traditionally a stable source for base load, especially during periods when hydroelectric power plants show low output," says Oleg Abelev, head of the analytical department of Rikom-Trust. At the same time, logistics from Russian Black Sea ports to Turkey are well established, he adds.

In the EU, Russian coal miners do not have direct sales opportunities due to sanctions. However, a source in the industry told Kommersant, coal can be sold to Europe and other regions where there are bans through “trade channels” (see Kommersant, February 12). In the Middle East, Russian coal is also purchased by Egypt and Morocco, but in small quantities, says Alexander Kotov. According to Oleg Abelev, coal from the Russian Federation may also be of interest to countries in Southern Europe that are not members of the EU, such as Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Large discounts often outweigh political risks, he notes.

In the first nine months of 2025, coal exports exceeded last year's level, according to CCI data. Analysts estimate the volume of deliveries at approximately 152.6 million tons, which is 3.8% more than in the same period a year earlier. In September, the largest importers were China (7.8 million tons), South Korea (2.7 million tons) and Turkey (1.2 million tons).